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Yes. If you are in a hurry, out of patience or hungry, you can close the text. The consensus is that the last thing missing for the Brazilian stock market to rise is flow . It's the money coming in, the buyers. And in recent weeks, we've started to see a change. Valor's headline says "Multimarkets have their first month in the black in 10 months" Source: Valor Econômico First, multimarket funds raise funds, invest in the stock market, which rises and pulls in the raising of equity funds. Are you going now? "What are the risks to the stock market?" Whenever I say that the stock market is cheap, people answer me something like: "But what about the fiscal risks? And does the government spend money by increasing taxes?" Valor's headline says "Tax, interest and inflation are a risk for stocks" Source.
Valor Econômico Yes, of course, the risks are always many. But if there cell phone number list weren't big risks, the stock market wouldn't be at its lowest multiple in history — you're tired of seeing the chart below. IBOV since 2006 Source: Bloomberg The less you pay for a company's profits (or EBITDA) (or index, like IBOV), the cheaper it is. Think about price/m2 (price per square meter), the lower, the cheaper. The stock market, today, prices tragedy. "But isn't fiscal risk a tragedy?" Not today. The risk fell well after the government tied itself to the fiscal framework . Even without fulfilling it — and no one thinks it will —, the risks have fallen well. Therefore, we had Selic falling 50 points and future interest rates falling from almost 14% to 10.5%. Future interest 2027 since 2016 Source: Bloomberg I still took the interest for 2027 — which would have two years of "Galípolo management" at the Central Bank (it starts at the end of 2024).
Furthermore, interest rates are much more exposed to high public spending , which pushes inflation up. Most companies are able to pass on inflation (did you see how the Argentine stock market “crashed” this year?). Stock markets are cheap and interest rates have already dropped significantly. Financial Freedom Worksheet "Bruce, isn't Brazilian debt growing?" Yes, it is. But Arthur Lira, who already approved the "impossible" tax reform this year (just to gain government positions), announced his new focus : Veja headline says "Administrative reform: Government must help it be approved", says Lira Source: See I don't know why he wants to stir this hornet's nest, but 65% of total public spending today is on salaries and pensions. If Lira undergoes a good renovation, the fiscal problem will be over. Cheap stock market, interest rates will fall and we will have a reformist Congress. "But the stock market rose a lot this year" Yes, I hear that all the time . It's unbelievable.
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发表于 2023-10-12 18:26:12